Guest Articles

The hidden fragility of just-in-time import models

For years, the efficiency of global supply chains allowed UAE businesses to operate lean inventories, confident that replenishment would arrive on schedule. That confidence is now being tested. The shift from just-in-time to just-in-case thinking - long discussed in post-pandemic supply chain analysis - is no longer optional for many operators.

The hospitality and F&B; sector illustrates this clearly. Charcoal, firewood, outdoor cooking equipment and cooling products are high-volume, operationally critical supplies for hotels, beach clubs and restaurants across the region. Virtually all of it is imported. When freight routes are disrupted or costs spike, the businesses that have maintained local stock buffers continue operating normally. Those that haven’t face a choice between paying inflated emergency freight costs or telling customers they cannot deliver.

Stock discipline, in short, is not a storage cost - it is a risk management strategy.

The stronger structural argument: make it here

Inventory management addresses the symptom. The more significant opportunity — and the one that this moment should catalyse - is local and regional production. 

The UAE has invested substantially in the conditions required for manufacturing: world-class logistics infrastructure, a business-friendly regulatory environment, access to regional markets, and an industrial base that is maturing rapidly. What has lagged is private sector appetite to move beyond trading and distribution into production.

Products in consistent, high-volume demand across the GCC - consumables, packaging, food-adjacent goods, operational supplies - that can be manufactured using locally sourced inputs represent genuine opportunities to reduce structural import dependency. The investment required is real, and the returns are longer-term. But the businesses that make that move now will be the ones insulated when the next disruption arrives - and there will be a next one.

The UAE government’s industrial self-sufficiency agenda under Operation 300bn and the National In-Country Value programme provides a policy framework that actively supports this direction. The private sector needs to match that ambition.

What this looks like in practice

Local production does not require reinventing complex manufacturing from scratch. In many categories, it means identifying waste streams and underutilised inputs that can be redirected into finished goods - reducing both input costs and environmental impact simultaneously. It means partnering with existing industrial operators rather than building greenfield facilities. And it means accepting that the economics of local production, while not always immediately competitive with imported goods, become highly competitive the moment a freight crisis hits.

For businesses considering this direction, the practical questions - licensing requirements, regulatory frameworks, manufacturing processes and commercial structuring - are navigable, but require informed guidance. The landscape is more accessible than many assume.

Conclusion

This disruption will pass, as others have. But the underlying vulnerability it has exposed will not resolve itself. The UAE businesses that use this moment to rethink their supply chains - investing in local stock resilience now, and exploring local production over the medium term - will emerge structurally stronger.

The question every procurement and operations leader should be asking is simple: what would happen to our business if the ships stopped tomorrow? If the honest answer is uncomfortable, now is the time to act on it.

Author: 

Aadil Datta, CEO, Elite Horizon General Trading LLC

Aadil Datta is CEO of Elite Horizon General Trading LLC, a Dubai-based distributor of outdoor, hospitality and lifestyle products and a participant in local UAE manufacturing. He welcomes conversations with businesses exploring supply chain resilience and local production opportunities.

www.ehdxb.com