IN2 Pulse: GCC & Middle East Decision Briefing

Date Posted:Tue, 6th Oct 2026

IN2 Pulse: GCC & Middle East Decision Briefing

The US sent Iran a response, and the market moved its bet on when the blockade ends from October toward December. Araghchi is reported to have put it to Pezeshkian at the 30 September Cabinet; the contents are undisclosed and it is not confirmed to be a rejection, with Pezeshkian reported more positive ("win-win"). Trump paired it with "end very soon, one way or the other" and a threat to "blow them up." Blockade-end by 31 October fell to 28.5% from 32.5 (confirmed); by 31 December rose to about 59% on the bid from a 5.5 mid, on a distorted book with the ask side thin (reported).

 

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