Regional Updates

At Ebury, our mission is to provide the clarity needed to navigate these turbulent waters. Our analysis throughout March 2026 highlights a rapidly evolving narrative for global currency markets:

The rhetoric vs. reality gap

On the surface, President Trump’s rhetoric earlier in the week offered a glimmer of hope after he claimed the US would be leaving Iran in the “very near future”. However, seasoned investors have learned not to overreact to such "jawboning". This skepticism is reflected in the prediction markets; Polymarket currently assigns less than a 10% probability of a ceasefire by the end of March, with only a 50/50 shot that the conflict concludes by the end of June.

The critical choke point: The Strait of Hormuz

As we’ve stressed since the start of the war, the most important aspect of this flare-up is the ongoing blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. While non-energy trade through this lane is relatively small, the disruption to energy supply—which accounts for 80-95% of the strait's traffic—is triggering massive volatility.

Brent crude has surged above $100 a barrel, and European natural gas prices have doubled since the war began. This "energy resilience" factor has created a sharp divergence in FX performance, with the US dollar emerging as the primary winner while the euro and Asian currencies face significant pressure.

Strategising for uncertainty: The four scenarios

The acute uncertainty in the markets is making it increasingly challenging for international businesses to plan ahead. To assist BCCD members in mapping out their risk management and FX strategies, we have developed a comprehensive framework outlining the four primary paths this conflict could take.

Our full report analyzes the best, short-term, medium, and worst-case scenarios, detailing the specific implications each would have for global trade flows, market volatility, and sector-specific impacts. Understanding these trajectories is vital for any firm managing international payments or cross-border exposure in the current climate.

[Click here to read the full report: Iran war scenarios & FX implications]

We encourage all members of the British Chamber of Commerce Dubai to review these scenarios and reach out to our team for a tailored discussion on how to protect your commercial interests as this situation develops.