Guest Articles

Footfall across Dubai and Abu Dhabi has naturally been heavily impacted over the past number of weeks, but it’s important to distinguish between a sharp short-term shock and a structural slowdown.

What we have seen at Morris Global Consulting, both anecdotally on the ground is tourism-driven luxury traffic is down sharply for obvious reasons but resident-led demand remains relatively resilient, though more intentional than before particularly as the situation intensified just before the ceasefire announcment.

Overall mall environments are quieter, but not distressed.

In March, visitor numbers at Dubai Mall were reported to be down by around 50% year-on-year, while Mall of the Emirates saw footfall down roughly 15% and sales down 30–50%. In The Galleria Al Maryah Island, which is much less reliant on tourism, the decline has been more muted at around 10% down in sales. That aligns with what operators are experiencing locally malls are still open, trading, and in many cases operationally stable, but traffic is noticeably thinner, particularly midweek and in luxury-heavy zones. The biggest shift is behavioural in my opinion, fewer browsing shoppers, more intentional purchasing, and shorter dwell times.

From a luxury perspective, the concern isn’t just footfall, it’s conversion and ticket size under pressure. The Middle East has been one of the last remaining growth markets for luxury globally, but it is also highly dependent on tourism, aviation flows, and perception of stability. With flight disruptions and regional uncertainty, that demand has softened quickly, but what is particularly interesting on the ground is that local high-net-worth and resident consumers are still spending, and in some cases deliberately so to support the local economy.

The bigger concern being voiced by luxury operators isn’t immediate closures, most of those were temporary in early March, but rather how long this softer demand environment lasts, particularly given ongoing rent obligations and the importance of the region to global profitability.  After multiple price increases and growing concerns around quality, luxury brands would benefit from returning to their roots and reinforcing the craftsmanship and standards that justify their price points. A more intentional customer base, in that sense, may actually be a healthy reset, in my opinion.

I expect the situation to stabilise in the very near future, the UAE market historically rebounds very very quickly, and this time will be no different. But if disruption continues, the pressure will shift from footfall to margin erosion and store-level profitability, which is where brands will start making more structural decisions.

Author: Marie (Mo) Morris, CEO, Morris Global Consulting