Guest Articles

The answer, for those willing to look beyond the immediate crisis, points unmistakably toward West Africa.

A Crisis Built on Structural Fragility

The scale of the current disruption is without precedent. The IEA's March 2026 Oil Market Report estimates a plunge of 8 million barrels per day in global supply, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz reduced to less than 10% of pre-crisis levels. Qatar has declared force majeure on LNG exports, cutting roughly 20% of global liquefied natural gas supply at a stroke. Europe, entering this crisis with gas storage at only 30% capacity after a harsh winter, has seen Dutch TTF benchmarks nearly double.

The deeper lesson is not about this specific conflict. It is about what happens when decades of supply concentration leave the global energy system with almost no redundancy. The Gulf has long been treated as structurally permanent — a foundation, not a variable. The events of the past three weeks have exposed that assumption as a category error.

West Africa: The Alternative That Was Always There

I have spent fifteen years working in the oil and gas sector along the West African coast, and I can say with some conviction that the region's strategic value has been consistently underestimated by European and international operators. That is changing, and the pace of change is about to accelerate sharply.

West Africa holds approximately 4% of global proven oil reserves and around 2.7% of natural gas reserves, but these figures understate its real significance. The basin is geologically active: Côte d'Ivoire's offshore Baleine field, discovered by ENI in 2021, has been confirmed as the largest oil and gas discovery in the country's history and is now in active development. Senegal and Mauritania are bringing their joint Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project to first gas. Ghana continues to develop its Jubilee and TEN fields. Nigeria, despite well-documented governance challenges, operates Africa's most significant refining asset in the newly operational Dangote facility — which, in the current crisis, has already begun supplying refined products to Ghana, South Africa and Kenya as Middle East flows dry up.

Crucially, none of these assets are in a war zone. None depend on the Strait of Hormuz. Their export routes — directly into the Atlantic — are among the most legally and operationally secure in the world.

The Partnership Gap — and Why It Matters Now

The obstacle is not reserves. It is relationships, structures, and local knowledge. European energy companies understand the Gulf; they have decades of contracts, logistics networks, and institutional familiarity. West Africa, by contrast, remains opaque to many: different legal frameworks, multiple languages, complex local content requirements, and a web of national oil companies and independent operators that require patient, trust-based engagement to navigate.

This is precisely where the opportunity lies for international businesses — and for the Chamber's members in particular. The companies that move now to build genuine partnerships in West Africa, through joint ventures, service agreements, technology transfers, or equity participation in upstream projects, will not simply be responding to a crisis. They will be positioning themselves ahead of a structural rebalancing of global energy supply that the events of 2026 have made inevitable.

From my own experience bridging European and West African energy interests, I would identify three practical entry points. First, industrial services: the region's expanding offshore and onshore operations create sustained demand for specialised equipment, maintenance, and technical services that local markets cannot yet fully supply. Second, infrastructure finance: West African governments and NOCs are actively seeking international partners to co-finance midstream and downstream assets — pipelines, storage, and refining capacity — on terms that offer attractive returns by European benchmarks. Third, advisory and structuring services: navigating local content laws, fiscal regimes, and community obligations requires partners with genuine on-the-ground presence, not consultants operating from London.

Risk, Honestly Assessed

A credible case for West Africa cannot ignore the risks. Governance remains uneven across the region, and the business environment varies significantly between countries. Political transitions — some managed, some less so — are a feature of the landscape that any serious investor must account for. Currency volatility, local content obligations, and infrastructure gaps are real operational constraints.

But risk must be assessed comparatively. The companies now watching the Strait of Hormuz close from a distance — having built supply chains and capital allocation strategies on the assumption of Gulf stability — are experiencing what concentrated, unhedged geopolitical risk actually costs. West Africa's risks are different, mostly manageable with the right local partnerships and legal structuring, and they are increasingly well understood by the professional services firms, development finance institutions, and law firms that already operate across the region.

A Strategic Window That Will Not Stay Open Indefinitely

History consistently shows that major energy crises accelerate structural shifts that were already underway. The 1973 embargo accelerated France's nuclear programme. The 1979 Iranian Revolution reshaped Japan's energy efficiency policy. The current crisis, I believe, will prove to be a powerful accelerant for West African energy development and the deepening of Europe-Africa energy partnerships.

The question for BCCD members is not whether this shift will happen, but whether they will be among those who shaped it or those who responded to it. Relationships take time to build; due diligence on West African assets cannot be completed in a week; structuring a viable partnership requires months of careful work. The companies that begin now — identifying assets, engaging local counterparts, and building the institutional knowledge that serious involvement requires — will find themselves with a significant first-mover advantage when the broader market catches up.

The energy map is being redrawn. West Africa is not a consolation prize for a disrupted Gulf. It is a region of genuine, large-scale opportunity that the current crisis has brought into sharper focus. For those ready to engage seriously, the moment is now.

Author: Jacques Coquerel, Entrepreneur, Founder & Managing Director, LinkAfrik Advisory Ltd

About the author

Jacques Coquerel is an Entrepreneur, Founder and Managing Director of LinkAfrik Advisory Ltd, a UK-registered advisory firm specialising in energy and infrastructure partnerships between Europe and West Africa. With over 35 years of international business experience including 15 years operating in the West African oil and gas sector, he works with European companies seeking to originate, structure and execute strategic projects across the region.

Contact: [email protected]  |  +33 6 95 14 10 41  |  linkafrikadvisory.com